Tutkimukseni
Tutkimukseni on poikkitieteellinen matka meteorologian, viestinnän, psykologian ja data-analyysin alueilla. Opintojeni ytimessä on erityinen kiinnostus soveltaa psykologista reaktanssia ja muita psykologisia käsitteitä viestien tehokkuuden parantamiseksi ja suostuttelun vahvistamiseksi.
Täältä löydät yksityiskohtaisen katsauksen sekä omiin projekteihini että yhteistyöhankkeisiin, joiden tavoitteena on laajentaa näiden alojen ymmärrystä. Olitpa kiinnostunut sään ilmiöistä, ihmisten viestinnän vivahteista tai psykologian ja datan tulkinnan vuorovaikutuksesta, tämä osio tarjoaa ikkunan akateemisiin saavutuksiini ja moniin aiheisiin, joita intohimoisesti tutkin.
Julkaisut ja tutkimus
2016 – nykypäivä
14.12.2023
Reactance, Mortality Salience, and Skin-Cancer Prevention Among Young Adults
Bessarabova, E., Massey, Z. B., Ma, H., MacDonald, A., & Lindsey, N. (2023). Reactance, Mortality Salience, and Skin-Cancer Prevention Among Young Adults. Health communication, 1–9. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/10410236.2023.2293911
Abstract
In an experiment (N = 206) using skin cancer prevention messages and a 2 (mortality: salient, control) × 2 (freedom-limiting language: freedom-limiting, autonomy-supportive) independent-group design, we tested the terror management health model and integrated its predictions with the theory of psychological reactance. We used a sample of young adults because they are most at risk for excessive tanning. Consistent with the study predictions about proximal defenses, mortality salience significantly increased intentions to wear sunscreen all year around, relative to the control condition. A significant interaction between freedom-limiting language and mortality salience on behavioral intention to purchase high-SPF lotion revealed that, when a freedom-limiting message was paired with mortality salience, intentions to purchase high-SPF lotion were significantly greater as compared to autonomy-supportive language, indicating that mortality salience mitigated the maladaptive effects of reactance. These results add to a growing body of research identifying boundary conditions for reactance effects and, further, point to the utility of directive (albeit freedom-limiting language) in health-prevention messages attempting to communicate deadly health risks.​
6.9.2021
Reactance, Mortality Salience, and Skin-Cancer Prevention Among Young Adults
MacDonald, A. (2021). A Test of the Terror Management Health Model and Psychological Reactance in the Context of Skin Protective Behaviors. https://shareok.org/handle/11244/330763 Norman, OK
Abstract
This study presents the results of an experiment (N = 206) that utilized sun overexposure prevention messages and a 2 (mortality: salient, control) × 2 (freedom threat: high, low) independent-group design. The study tested the terror management health model (Goldenberg & Arndt, 2008) and integrated its predictions with the theory of psychological reactance (J. W. Brehm, 1966) to examine the effects of mortality salience on proximal defenses. When mortality is salient, proximal terror management defense can help motivate individuals to engage in adaptive health behaviors. Conversely, when direct, freedom-limiting messages are used in persuasion, individuals can become reactant and fail to adhere to risk mitigation messages. However, using freedom limiting messages to address health concerns that activate death awareness may help mitigate reactance, resulting in adaptive, body protective behaviors. Consistent with this reasoning, study results revealed that mortality salience significantly increased intentions to wear sunscreen all year around relative to the control (dental pain) condition. However, the effect of mortality salience on the intention to purchase high or low-SPF lotions was not significant. In addition, a main effect of mortality salience on threat-to-freedom perceptions was marginally significant and indicated that mortality salience generated less threat to freedom perceptions. This finding suggests that mortality salience can mitigate threat to freedom perceptions that are part of reactance. Finally, a significant interaction between freedom threat and mortality salience on behavioral intention to purchase a high-SPF lotion showed that, when a high threat-to-freedom message was paired with mortality salience, intentions to purchase a high-SPF lotion were significantly higher as compared to the low-threat-control condition, indicating that mortality salience mitigated the maladaptive effects of reactance. These results provide a handful of insights and future directions for research to improve risk and crisis communication efforts. In situations where individuals are faced with explicit, freedom-limiting messages, tailoring alert/prevention messages by making mortality salient can help maximize adherence to self-protective claims and increase overall message effectiveness by avoiding unintended reactance effects. Keywords: reactance, terror management health model, terror management theory, freedom threat, death, persuasion, mortality salience, sun exposure, tanning, skin cancer prevention
26.3.2021
Does the Rhyme Chime? Evaluating the Persuasiveness of a Rhyming Weather Message
MacDonald, A., & Cionea, I. A. (2021). Does the Rhyme Chime?: Evaluating the Persuasiveness of a Rhyming Weather Message. In Local Theories of Argument (pp. 510-516). Routledge.
Abstract
Since its formation in 1870, the National Weather Service has, per its very own mission statement, served to provide “weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy”. Persuasive campaigns have been used in a wide variety of compliance efforts, ranging from political, commercial, educational, and consumeristic standpoints. The burden lies on those communicating persuasive campaigns to provide tantalizing claims, backed by relevant and stimulating support, to gain the adherence of the audience to act or think a certain way. It has long been assumed that rhyming and the use of phonetically complementary words within phrases are easier to remember. Numerous experiments connecting rhyming and memory have shown a correlation between restriction of responses to stimuli and phonetic action chains that contain a specific set of rhyming indices.
15.1.2021
Emergency Manager Decision-Making: Operational Considerations for FACETs R2O Efforts
MacDonald, A., Klockow-McClain, K., & Berry, K. L. (2021, January). Emergency Manager Decision-Making: Operational Considerations for FACETs R2O Efforts. In 101st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. New Orleans, LA
Abstract
NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed has served as a nexus for both researchers and operational meteorologists to assess and evaluate new tools and technology for transition to NWS operations. In recent years, HWT experiments involving end-users, such as broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers, have identified key areas and challenges for R2O efforts.
End user experiments involving emergency managers have shed light on a multitude of factors that influence spatiotemporal decision-making by emergency managers before and during severe weather events. Failure to consider such spatiotemporal influences to decision making creates a significant barrier to R2O efforts and the implementation of FACETs.
This study will first detail challenges to FACETs R2O efforts identified from observations in HWT experiments. Challenges such as end-user response to uncertainty, product integration into preset decision making routines, organizational and jurisdictional constraints, and cognitive processing demands will be discussed. Second, the implications of such challenges to decision making have on the ability for emergency managers to utilize probabilistic hazard information (PHI) will be examined from an R2O framework.
14.1.2021
Mapping Uncertainty and Complexity: Findings from Emergency Manager Experiments in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed
MacDonald, A., Klockow-McClain, K., & Berry, K. L. (2021, January). Mapping Uncertainty and Complexity: Findings from Emergency Manager Experiments in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed. In 101st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. New Orleans, LA
Abstract
The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) has provided a unique framework and space for evaluating emerging technologies and practices for NWS operations. In recent years, experiments have begun to include various end-user groups (broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers) in order to gain insights into specific end-user decision making needs. End-user insights, such as those gained through experiments involving emergency managers, have shed light on new decision making considerations and operational challenges to ongoing FACETs (Forecasting A Continuum if Environmental Threats) product development and R2O efforts.
Emergency manager testbed experiments have investigated how and when probabilistic hazard information (PHI) is used to make decisions over the duration of severe weather events. As a result, such testbed experiments have added depth and breadth to understanding emergency manager decision making considerations and constraints. Findings from emergency manager experiments have highlighted decision making considerations exclusive to emergency managers that must be accounted for moving forward with FACETs R2O efforts.
This poster presentation will detail the construction and use of a multidimensional framework to quantitatively measure organizational and geospatial constraints to decision making. This presentation will focus on key constraints such as uncertainty, task load, and product integration into operational decision making routines and the implications they have for emergency managers to effectively perceive, process, and respond to PHI.
14.1.2021
Bridging across Watch-to-Warning Event Scales for Severe Weather
Heinselman, P., Wilson, K. A., Marsh, P., Berry, K. L., MacDonald, A., Potvin, C., ... & Smith, T. M. (2021, January). Bridging across Watch-to-Warning Event Scales for Severe Weather. In 101st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. New Orleans, LA
Abstract
NWS Watches and Warnings issued for tornadoes, severe wind, and severe hail are discrete, binary products in a discontinuous flow of information. Advancements in short-term (0-6 h), rapidly updating ensemble model forecasts of individual thunderstorms, like those produced by the experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS), show strong promise to help transform this dichotomous, product-driven system to one informed by a continuous flow of probabilistic forecast information between the Watch-to-Warning event scales. However, the weather community must overcome several challenges in order for this transformation to become a reality, including determining solutions to key questions.
During 16-18 June 2020, the National Severe Storms Laboratory convened a virtual multi-organization workshop aimed at identifying interdisciplinary research gaps to tackle if we, and the broader meteorological community, are to achieve the ability to forecast a continuum of environmental threats (FACETs) from the Watch to Warning scales. The workshop engaged physical and social scientists from the NSSL, Global Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Forecast Offices, and University of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies. The purpose of this presentation is to communicate the key themes, challenges, and research questions identified through analysis of the workshop transcripts. Ideally, these ideas will help to inform interdisciplinary research priorities and collaborations across the Watch to Warning forecast continuum and beyond.
12.1.2021
Apples and Oranges: Navigating the Geospatial Comparison of NWSChat Data
MacDonald, A., Klockow-McClain, K., & Berry, K. L. (2021, January). Apples and Oranges: Navigating the Geospatial Comparison of NWSChat Data. In 101st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. New Orleans, LA
Abstract
NWSChat has long been considered a primary tool in enabling communication between National Weather Service Forecasters and their Integrated Warning Team (IWT) partners. While all 122 National Weather Service Forecast Offices (NWS WFOs) use NWSChat, the exact nature of NWSChat use and IWT communication is unique to each forecast office jurisdiction known as county warning areas (CWAs). With 122 CWAs each containing a unique set of climatological and geospatial characteristics, comparison between NWS WFOs using NWSChat presents a considerable challenge.
In addition to climatological differences, geospatial variations in population, demographics, economic connectivity, user needs, and integrated warning team structure all serve to create a unique identity for each CWA which naturally manifests itself in NWSChat communication. The benefits of leveraging NWSChat to geospatially compare CWAs are two-fold with 1) the ability to gain insights into the specific characteristics unique to a CWA and its respective IWT and 2) The ability to generate and tailor specific guidance to best serve the needs of a unique CWA, IWT structure, and end-users.
This study details geospatial differences in CWA and IWT structure and detail standardized comparison metrics that can enable meaningful comparisons between them. Additionally, the presentation will explore the benefits geospatial comparison of NWSChat data has for ongoing research to operations work surrounding Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs).
16.1.2020
NWSChat in the age of FACETS: The Future of the Integrated Warning Team
MacDonald, A., Berry, K., & Klockow-McClain, K. E. (2020, January). NWSChat in the age of FACETs: The Future of the Integrated Warning Team. In 100th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Boston, MA.
Abstract
For over a decade, NWSChat has served as the primary means of real-time communication for the National Weather Service (NWS) with its Integrated Warning Team (IWT) partners. While NWSChat logs are automatically archived, NWSChat participation trends over the course of a severe weather event remained unexplored. This study provides a high-resolution look at NWSChat IWT partner participation on 20 May 2019, a high-risk convective event in which NWS Norman provided continuous dissemination of information to its IWT partners through NWSChat.
Such an analysis of specific IWT partner participation provides a unique glimpse at how the current NWSChat communication infrastructure would operate in the age of FACETs (Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats). FACETs is a next-generation approach to NWS watches/warnings that will deliver user-specific, probabilistic hazard information (PHI) for improved decision making. As research with severe convective PHI matures and approaches operational use, an outstanding question exists about how PHI and other new temporal gap-filling products will affect the dynamics of IWT communication. This study will provide an overview of NWSChat trends and participation in an environment in which a continuous flow of information was provided to IWT partners.
27.8.2018
When thunder roars: a quantitative assessment of argument strength, risk efficacy, and cognitive elaboration in severe weather threat messaging.
MacDonald, A., & Cionea, I. A. (2018, August). When thunder roars: a quantitative assessment of argument strength, risk efficacy, and cognitive elaboration in severe weather threat messaging. In 46th National Weather Association Annual Meeting. St. Louis, MO.
Abstract
In recent years, the importance of effectively communicating weather threats has grown substantially in both the meteorological and social science communities. This survey study focuses on two common National Weather Service (NWS) threat messaging campaigns 'Turn Around Don't Drown' and 'When Thunder Roars Go Indoors' and subsequently tests key features associated with effective communication.
Multiple pre-established communication research scales and associated analysis methods were adapted specifically for gauging risk efficacy and cognitive elaboration of individuals after being exposed to multiple types of NWS threat awareness graphics. Survey participants were randomly presented with two specific NWS hazard messaging graphics and were subsequently asked to answer numerous questions regarding graphic and message content. Questions were divided into sets to assess three major components risk perception and risk efficacy, argument strength of the graphic itself and message content, and cognitive elaboration of the participant after being shown the message. Additionally, survey participants were asked open-ended response questions in order to provide participants the ability to freely elaborate their perceptions of the message and threat.
Following data collection, each respective measure analysis technique was applied in order to quantitatively assess the effective communication variables measured by each scale. Furthermore, open-ended responses were analyzed to determine more information regarding participant perception on the information, persuasiveness, and graphic design characteristics of each message in order to give a cohesive, in-depth look at common NWS weather messages from an argumentation communication perspective.
10.1.2018
NWSChat as a Decision Support Tool: Evolution and Severe Weather Applications
Smith, R., & MacDonald, A. (2018, January). NWSChat as a Decision Support Tool: Evolution and Severe Weather Applications. In 98th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Austin, TX.
Abstract
NWSChat is an instant messaging tool used in National Weather Service (NWS) forecast and warning operations to share critical impact-based decision support intelligence, warning decision expertise and a wide variety of weather, water and climate information to support the mission of saving lives and property. Through individual chat rooms designated for each NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO) NWSChat also allows for two-way interaction with NWS core local partners in the media, emergency management and public safety communities, creating a collaborative environment for information exchange among all the members of the Integrated Warning Team (IWT).
WFO Norman began using NWSChat in 2008. Since then, it has become more integrated into operations, and is viewed as an integral tool for forecasters to share and gather information on any type of significant weather event, and that has led to a marked increase in usage among our IWT partners. The total number of users registered with WFO Norman increased by nearly 400% since 2013, and that number has more than doubled since 2015. WFO Norman now has the second highest number of registered users of any NWS Forecast Office. Part of this increase can likely be attributed to a concerted effort by the staff at WFO Norman to increase the volume of information provided to partners via NWSChat.
This study will present NWSChat message timelines for significant severe weather events from both 16 May, 2017 and 18 May, 2017 to illustrate innovative ways in which WFO Norman staff supplemented the more traditional NWS products to help create a continuous flow of actionable decision support information. We also analyze specific chat message trends over time, and use that analysis to examine how different types of core partners participate in NWSChat over the course of a significant severe weather event.
7.1.2018
Using NWSChat to strengthen the integrated warning team: operational applications of external event integration.
MacDonald, A. (2018, January). Using NWSChat to Strengthen the Integrated Warning Team: Operational Applications of External Event Integration. In 98th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Austin, TX.
Abstract
For nearly a decade, NWSChat has served as the National Weather Service's primary means of real-time communication with its Integrated Warning Team (IWT) partners. In recent years, NWSChat logs have been the at the center of numerous studies in attempts to better assess IWT communication trends during severe weather events. Traditional methods of analyzing NWSChat logs have involved static breakdowns of chat users and post quantity by IWT affiliation, however, many do not assess event specific chat trends over time.
This study involves the development of an event specific temporal analysis technique for NWSChat logs from recent high impact severe weather days across the central United States. This method involves external event integration when processing chat log posts by incorporating Chat External Events (CEC's) to better assess the temporal influence of both internal and external factors on IWT participation within NWSChat. Preliminary findings indicate that the timing of CEC's such as watch and warning issuance, mesoscale discussions, outlook updates, and other real-time external events, have an immediate and lasting effect on the magnitude, duration, and frequency of IWT partner participation in NWSChat rooms.
By better understanding temporal trends within NWSChat rooms and the influence of chat external events, forecasters can better anticipate future chat trends, post frequency and user participation. This can allow forecasters to prepare and employ strategic chat communication techniques to earlier address confusion and answer questions; a crucial and time saving benefit during severe weather operations.
7.1.2018
Simulated observed radiosonde soundings: applications of boundary layer sounding modification in forecasting and numerical weather prediction.
MacDonald, A. (2016, June). Simulated observed radiosonde soundings: applications of boundary layer sounding modification in forecasting and numerical weather prediction. In American Meteorological Society 22nd Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence. Salt Lake City, UT.
Abstract
This study explores modifying boundary layer sounding processes and creating simulated observed radiosonde soundings (SimOS) to determine the optimal frequency and depth of boundary layer measurements by unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). Given FAA restrictions limiting UAS flights to below 3000 ft AGL, this research simulates unrestricted boundary layer measurements to identify effective measurement depths and the utility of new measurements between radiosonde launches. Using hourly radiosonde data from Yuma Proving Grounds, AZ, we created SimOS by combining hourly boundary layer profiles with a constant upper atmosphere profile, analyzed in SHARPpy. We assessed SimOS accuracy and effectiveness through regression analysis, varying boundary layer depths for comparison.
Initial results indicate minimal variance in surface thermodynamics and overall profile structure within 1 to 3 hours of modified soundings, with variance increasing afterward. Shallow boundary layer measurements increased variance in surface parameters and mid-upper level inconsistencies. This analysis suggests benefits of integrating UAS measurements with radiosonde soundings for real-time forecasting and enhancing data assimilation in weather models.